Havana - a new confidential U.S. diplomatic cable predicted the economic situation in the country could become "fatal" for two or three years and detailed diplomats from other countries - including China, the Communist-run country concerns has been slow to adopt reforms.
Cable wrote in February this year, months before the Cuban President Raul Castro has announced a major reorganization of the economy of the island, laying down plans to fire a State half million workers and to open up the island to the forms of private enterprise.
Cable, sent by the US interests section in Havana, which Washington maintains instead of an Embassy was released Friday by WikiLeaks. Apparently, it was written by chief diplomat America on the island, Jonathan Farrar.
The Cuban Parliament Chief Ricardo Alarcon, who speaks frequently on issues of U.S., says the Associated Press cable did not something new or interesting. "It seems to me Jonathan Farrar was a bit depressed that day" that he wrote the shipment, Alarcon said.
Relations between Washington and Havana are already strained by long detention of a u.s. contractor suspected espionage - not to mention the 50 years of Cold War animus, and release the cable was not likely to help matters.
It details a lunch organized by head of economic branch of interest with some major Cuban trading partners, including China, Spain, Canada, Brazil and Italy, as well as France and Japan, diplomats are among senior creditors the island page section business.
"All diplomats agreed that Cuba would survive this year without significant policy changes, but finances could become fatal within 2 to 3 years," cable said, adding that the Cuban Government sources cited Italian diplomats predict as the island "would become insolvent by 2011".
Chinese diplomat expressed so called cable "visible frustration." It is said that the Chinese were particularly unhappy with Cuba's insistence on maintaining majority control of any joint venture.
"Little importance if a foreign company invests 10 million or $ 100 million, i.e. GoC (Government of Cuba) investment will always add up to 51%,"the cable cited unidentified Chinese commercial Counsellor as saying.""
The Chinese also complains to get repaid loan problems, and in particular a Cuban request extended from one year to four years, the amount of time it has to repay the credit.
It is no secret that the financial situation of the country is more sinister. Raul Castro has warned that the State can afford no longer to subsidize Cuban life forms. The Government provides free health care and education and almost free transportation, housing and utilities. All Cubans also receive a ration book which provides some basic foods, but not enough to live.
The island most work for only $20 per month in an economic system dominated by the State and inefficiency.
Yet the country has survived the collapse of the Soviet Union, which has caused the near-failure of its economy, as well as a 48-year-old u.s. trade embargo, retirement of revolutionary leader Fidel Castro in 2006 and countless other bumps along the way.
And confidence of cable that the Government would not adopt economic reforms do panoramic step. Reforms announced by Raul Castro in September are considered the most important in a generation. However, we do know if they will be not enough to save continually weakening the island economy.
Cable said Cuba attempts to agricultural and other reforms up to this point have been ineffective and said the changes were unlikely. He said that the country seems determined to give the greatest control over State enterprises to the army and particularly agriculture Minister Ulises Rosales del Toro, including cable described as more general trustworthy of Raul Castro.
Cable said the situation would worsen dramatically should be economic or political problems involving top Cuban ally Venezuela, who said the mailing has been more "unstable". He cited the French diplomat meeting country Hugo Chavez "is burning" and "a source of serious concern to Cuba".
Cuba receives billions of dollars of oil annually Venezuela at prices considerably subsidized in exchange for Cuban doctors and other assistance.
"There is little chance of economic reform by 2010 despite economic crisis which should be even worse for Cuba in the coming years,"cable said, citing experts from Cuba."" It is closed with a scathing critique of the leaders of a Government headed by aging Fidel and Raul Castro brothers since they overthrew dictator Fulgencio Batista in 1959.
Government ' management and leadership remains confused and unclear, largely because their leaders are paralyzed by fear that the reforms will be loosen the grip tight on the power they have held for more than 50 years, "he said.
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Associated Press writer Andrea Rodriguez have contributed to this report.
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